【作 者】：
逄红梅，黄宏军， 高 健
【关 键 词 】：
产品生命周期； 斯隆联盟报告； 在线高等教育； 成长轨迹
【栏 目】：
网络教育
【中文摘要】：
纵观斯隆联盟连续14年调查报告和文献梳理，发现美国在线高等教育似乎正在沿着“诞生、快速成长、发展变革、突破瓶颈”生命轨迹演化。基于这样一种发现，文章引入产品生命周期理论并以其阶段特征为蓝本，假设在线高等教育发展阶段特征。利用斯隆联盟报告，从学生规模与增长率、高校规模与结构、发展战略与教学效果、成本分担与生源竞争四个方面发展样态提炼特征匹配要素，根据匹配吻合度识别美国在线高等教育所处周期阶段，结果显示：美国在线高等教育经历了2003—2009年的快速成长期、2009—2012年的成熟初期和2012—2015年的成熟中期，并逐渐向成熟期的顶峰演化。通过对美国在线高等教育成长周期的综合分析，以期为我国在线教育提供启示和参考建议。
【英文摘要】：
From survey reports of 14 consecutive years of the Sloan Consortium and literature review, it is found that American online higher education seems to be evolving along the life path of "birth, rapid growth, development and reform, and breaking through the bottleneck". Based on this finding, this article presumes the characteristics of developmental stages of online higher education by introducing the theory of product lifecycle and taking her characteristics of each stage as the framework. By making use of the reports published by the Sloan Consortium, this article extracts elements matching the characteristics from four aspects:the number of students and growth rate, the scale and structure of colleges and universities, development strategies and teaching efficiency, cost sharing and competition for sources of students, and then the stage of American online higher education can be identified according to the matching degree. The results show that American online higher education has gone through the rapid growth stage from 2003 to 2009, early maturation stage from 2009 to 2012 and mid-maturation stage from 2012 to 2015, and gradually evolves into the peak of the maturation stage. By comprehensively analyzing the growth cycle of American online higher education, this article provides enlightenment and suggestions to Chinese online education.